HIGHLIGHTS
• The former Tropical Cyclone Freddy weather system made landfall in Mozambique’s Inhambane Province on 24 February as a moderate storm.
• After landing, the system is expected to weaken, but could bring extensive rainfall, with the risk of floods and landslides, to southern Mozambique and south-eastern Zimbabwe in the coming days.
• In Madagascar, 7 people have died and at least 79,000 are affected following Freddy’s passage.
• Response is already underway in Madagascar, while Mozambique and Zimbabwe have put in place preparatory measures for the weather system’s arrival
SITUATION OVERVIEW
The former Tropical Cyclone Freddy weather system made landfall in Mozambique—south of Vilanculos in Inhambane Province—on 24 February as a moderate tropical storm. The system is now expected to weaken over southern Africa but will continue to pose a serious rainfall threat to southern Mozambique and south-eastern Zimbabwe, according to Meteo France. It risks bringing months-worth of rainfall in the space of a few days, and has the potential to cause widespread flooding in areas that have saturated soils and high river basin levels, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
In Mozambique, flooding in central and southern Mozambique could affect up to 1.75 million people, according to the National Institute for Disaster Management in Mozambique, (INGD). The risk of severe flooding in the Limpopo river basin, in particular, has been highlighted by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), which anticipates that floods could be worse than during Cyclone Eloise in 2021.
In Madagascar, Tropical Cyclone Freddy has left at least 7 people dead and affected 79,000 people in several regions, including 22,500 displaced, according to the National Bureau of Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC). It is estimated that Cyclone Freddy impacted more than 14,000 houses affected (3,079 flooded, 9,696 damaged and 1,206 totally destroyed), while 41 schools have been affected, with 6 classrooms totally destroyed, 37 partially destroyed and 79 roofless, leaving about 6,800 students out of school. According to preliminary findings from ongoing needs assessments, wind-related damages appear to have been limited to within approximately 30-50 kilometres around the landing point—which was in Mahela commune— with the impact zone stretching between the town of Mananjary and the commune of Ambahy, an area with approximately 13 to 15 municipalities, with about 115,000 inhabitants. Limited flooding has been observed, with UNOSAT identifying only about 16km2 of flooded lands within an analysed area of about 530 km2. However, substitution foods, such as fruits, that people consume during the lean season (February to April) have been damaged and figures related to the cyclone’s impact may rise in the days ahead as the assessments are completed.
Source: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs